Thursday, May 18, 2006

50K Race Prediction

Last night was a sunny, humid 26C/79F as I headed out for a repeat of the 8.4K/5.2M loop that I did on Monday. My legs were a little stiff from the bike/swim brick that I did on Tuesday night, so I kept the pace down some, averaging 5:42/K (9:10/M). The run ended way too soon, or seemingly. Normally I run at least 14K/8.7M on Wednesdays, so the run last night was short for me. I was also thinking a lot about my upcoming 50K race next Thursday (a holiday - Day of Ascension), so was running spaced out most of the time.

A couple nights ago I sat down with the elevation plan for the 50K race to try to estimate where and when I need to take walk breaks. I figure I will probably need to walk some of the tougher hill climbs, so charted approximately where the walk breaks would probably begin and end. Assuming a worst case scenario where I would need to walk up ALL the major hills, here is the list of the parts I would need to run and walk:

KM 0 to 4.5 – Run
KM 4.5 to 8.0 – Walk
KM 8.0 to 12.5 – Run
KM 12.5 to 13.5 – Walk
KM 13.5 to 15.5 – Run
KM 15.5 to 16.5 – Walk
KM 16.5 to 17.5 – Run
KM 17.5 to 19.0 – Walk
KM 19.0 to 22.0 – Run
KM 22.0 to 23.5 – Walk
KM 23.5 to 25.5 – Run
KM 25.5 to 26.5 – Walk
KM 26.5 to 33.0 – Run
KM 33.0 to 33.5 – Walk
KM 33.5 to 41.5 – Run
KM 41.5 to 44.0 – Walk
KM 44.0 to 47.0 – Run
KM 47.0 to 47.5 – Walk
KM 47.5 to 50.0 – Run

This works out to running 37K (23M) and walking 13K (8M). If I can maintain an average running pace of 6:30/K (10:28/M) and an averaging walking pace of 10:30/K (16:54/M) than this would mean I would need 4:00:30 + 2:16:30 or 6 hours and 17 minutes to complete my 50K. How’s that for some geek predictions, huh!

Here’s the elevation chart that I used. The numbers on the bottom are kilometers, the height on the left in meters. The “V” numbers are the aid stations, the “T” numbers are tea stations, e.g. just something to drink.

alright, way to go! I need to do that for S&S, I'm not sure what my timing will be!!! At least I have my taper coming up = plenty of time to think :)
50k is so awesome. you are quite the runner. all your pre-race planning will help a lot.
You're ready to rock the course Jack. Have a great race!!!
I am going to laugh so hard when this comes out *to the minute* as your time!
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